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How does the simulation work?
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Decisions and calculations in the simulation are deliberately kept
as simple as possible, so that results are unambiguous.
Casualties are obtained
by simple multiplication of casualties per weapon by the percentage
of weapons that penetrate the defenses. The percentage of weapons that
get through is 1 minus the defensive success rate. In other words, if
the defensive success rate is 80%, and the attacker uses 100 nuclear
weapons, 20 weapons get through.
About half the US population lives in the twenty largest metropolitan areas,
so these are obvious targets.
Cities are targeted in decreasing order of population, that is New York
followed by Los Angeles followed by Chicago, etc. If a target is
destroyed, the attack moves on to the next largest target.
The attacker has a choice of delivery systems, just as in real life.
Therefore there are two defensive success rates, one
for ballistic missiles and one for all other delivery systems.
The September 11 attackers used airplanes as delivery systems;
previous attackers used trucks. The attacker prefers the delivery system
that is more likely to succeed.
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What is the source of the data for this site?
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The satellite image of North America is courtesy of the
AVHRR Land Pathfinder Project,
a joint effort of
NOAA
and
NASA.
Data on the twenty largest US metropolitan areas are obtained from the
US Census Bureau.
Missile and nuclear weapons capabilities are approximately as estimated by the
Federation of American Scientists.
Estimates of other weapons are chosen to provide a range of scenarios.
The sound effects in the attack are courtesy of
CodeBrain.com.
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Where can I find more information on Missile Defense?
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The US organization responsible for missile defense is the
Missile Defense Agency.
Additional information on missile defense is provided by the
Department of Defense.
The US nuclear deterrent is primarily maintained by the
US Air Force and the
US Navy.
The
Center for Defense Information
provides good estimates of defense costs and other information.
The
Federation of American Scientists
provide a wealth of information on missile defense and other topics.
The
Union of Concerned Scientists
has been studying ballistic missile defense since the "Star Wars"
program of the early 1980s.
One of the oldest organizations studying nuclear war is the
Physicians For Social Responsibility.
Many components of missile defense are computer-based.
Computer Professionals For Social Responsibility
examines missile defense issues from a computer and software perspective.
GreenPeace
has taken an active stand against missile defenses.
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How can I improve this site?
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This site was made possible through support and constructive criticism
from Diana, Chuck, Mary, and many others.
If you liked this site, you may also enjoy
the Budget Explorer,
an online presentation of the complete US Federal Budget.
If you have a suggestion to improve this site,
please let us know!
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